What to Expect as Biden Hosts the Last Quad Summit of His Administration

Such a counter-CCP alliance could be conflicting for India, which is in league with China by way of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Russia-led BRICS economic bloc.
Adam Savit, the Director of the China Policy Initiative at the America First Policy Insitute (AFPI), told The Epoch Times the Quad is unlikely to spawn a military alliance but helps counterbalance India’s other relationships.
While AFPI is largely aligned with Trump’s “America First” politics, Savit said, the fact that the Quad hasn’t become a military alliance is not a knock on Biden’s record.
“It’s hard to coordinate these four powers,” Savit said.
Savit credited Biden with continuing to build up other Indo-Pacific security partnerships as well, like the U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral relationship.
The official said the Quad nations aim to improve their ability to “uphold and enforce international law” in Indo-Pacific waters.
Beyond enforcing international order on the high seas, the Quad has looked to other ways to limit China’s regional influence, such as rerouting trade and supply chains.
Gracelin Baskaran, the director of the Project on Critical Mineral Security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said critical mineral exploration and extraction could be an area of increasing collaboration among the Quad members, and could be a point of focus at the Saturday summit.
Richard Rossow, senior adviser and CSIS chair in U.S.-India policy studies, predicted the Quad leaders will also look to diversify their supply chains more broadly.
“They all want to reduce their dependence on China and just generally reduce dependence on any one country on the heels of COVID and some of the supply chain constraints that we saw during that period,” Rossow said.
Thus far, there are no signs either Vice President Kamala Harris or Trump will diverge significantly from Biden’s path in the Indo-Pacific region.
Savit said the Quad relationship is “on autopilot,” in the sense that “it is fulfilling its role, even though it is vague.”
Should Trump win the 2024 election, Savit predicted the Quad relationship would continue to grow on its current trajectory.
Savit predicted Trump could build on his first term in office, and expand on U.S.-Japan relations going forward.
“When Trump was in office, there was a very strong relationship with Japan. Part of that was [then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe] as a person, but that sparked cooperation, including Japan rebuilding its military,” Savit said.
Savit said the proximity of the Japanese-controlled Senkaku and Ryukyu Islands to Taiwan makes Japan a key ally in contesting a potential Chinese attempt to seize control of Taiwan.